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Sophie Foster Updated 15 Sep 2026, 8:01am First published 15 Sep 2026, 7:57am Add as a preferred source on Google All four big banks are aligned on a more aggressive rate path for the Australian economy. Aussies are facing the highest interest rates in the Western world – with little they can do amid a brutal warning by the biggest banks that relief is being pushed out by a shock period. Interbank futures price Australia’s cash rate to surge to a staggering 4.99 per cent by mid-2027, according to ANZ Research – the highest peak interest rate in the Western developed world.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock is facing increased pressure to move on rates as inflation proves stubborn. Picture: NewsWire / Christian Gilles ANZ Research found Australia’s current 4.35 per cent cash rate is already higher than almost every major economy in the Western world including New Zealand, the eurozone, the UK, Canada and the US. According to analysis of interbank futures by ANZ Research, Australia’s projected 4.99 per cent cash rate peak sits well above all major Western peers – with the US expected to top out at 4.25 per cent, the UK at 3.75 per cent, New Zealand at 3.00 per cent, the eurozone at 2.75 per cent and Canada at just 2.50 per cent.
Thsi as a grim new consensus has emerged across Australia’s largest lenders, CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ, with struggling homeowners to see an extended period of high interest rates and house price falls – amid a massive run-up in business investment triggering inflation. CBA chief economist Luke Yeaman Picture: Martin Ollman Westpac chief economist Dr Luci Ellis has the timeline for rate relief around 350 days away, with the bank having “pencilled in three 25bp cuts starting August 2027”. ANZ has echoed this extended timeline, holding out until August 2027 for the first expected rate cuts.
Westpac reinstated a rate hike in November into its baseline due to “a larger data-centre investment pipeline” alongside “a globally-driven surge in tech-related spending”. National Australia Bank had the most immediate warning, expecting the Reserve Bank to hit homeowners with a fourth rate hike to 4.60 per cent on September 29 – warning there is “little slack” left in the domestic economy. Commonwealth Bank chief economist Luke Yeaman warned a “new, more complex economic era” means the low-rate era is officially dead.
CommBank expects a cash rate hike to 4.60 per cent in November, or potentially as early as late September, warning “the slowing economy will not bring much in the way of immediate or major rate relief for Australian households”. Dr Luci Ellis, chief economist of Westpac. Picture: Aaron Francis / The Australian Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Dr Sarah Hunter delivered a grim reality check on interest rates on Monday, warning global shocks were keeping inflation dangerously high.
“We’ve obviously got inflation that’s still above target, and that’s definitely a concern for us,” Dr Hunter said, pointing to Middle East conflict oil spikes and the global AI boom as key drivers. Adding to the nightmare, the extended high-rate horizon is now crushing property values – with Westpac downgrading its housing outlook, forecasting national house prices will drop 6 per cent in 2026, with homeowners in Sydney and Melbourne to face the brunt of the downturn with an up to 10 per cent tumble. Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall has called for borrowers to press for a better deal with their provider or give themself their own rate cut by shopping around.
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Source: realestate.com.au
